TEMPro and traffic growth.
Traffic growth forecasts using TEMPro, adjusted properly for committed development so nothing is double counted.
Also known as: TEMPro, traffic growth, NTEM, growth factors, future year assessment
What’s included.
TEMPro is the Department for Transport’s tool for local growth forecasts, based on the National Trip End Model. It is used to grow survey data to future assessment years. Getting the adjustment for committed development right avoids overstating the impact.
- Assessment years agreed with the council
- TEMPro growth factors by area and road type
- Alternative assumptions to avoid double counting
- Committed development traffic
- Sensitivity tests
- Clear tables the officer can check
Straightforward, proportionate, agreed early.
Agreed up front
Years and assumptions agreed at scoping.
No double counting
Growth adjusted where committed developments are added separately.
Transparent
Every factor shown so the officer can reproduce it.
Questions we get asked
What is TEMPro?
The Trip End Model Presentation Program, published by the Department for Transport, which provides growth forecasts from the National Trip End Model.
What assessment years are usually used?
Often the year of opening and a future year several years later, as agreed with the council.
How are committed developments handled?
They are added separately, and TEMPro growth is adjusted so the same houses and jobs are not counted twice.
Often needed alongside.
Growing traffic to a future year
Traffic counts describe today. Assessments test a future year, usually the year the scheme opens and sometimes a later one, so today’s flows are grown using national forecasts.
TEMPro gives growth factors for each area and year. The important step is avoiding double counting: where nearby committed developments are added in separately, the growth factors are adjusted so their traffic is not counted twice.
- Growth factors chosen for the right area, period and road type.
- Committed developments agreed with the highway authority.
- A clear audit trail, so the officer can follow every step.
Last reviewed October 2026 by Ripple Development Planning. Policy and guidance change; for advice on a specific site, send us the details.
From our insights.
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